Updated: 12-Mar-10 09:10 ET

February Retail Sales

Updated: 12-Mar-10 09:10 ET

Highlights

• Retail sales unexpectedly grew by 0.3% in February.
• The consensus expected sales to fall by 0.2%.

Key Factors

• This is the third piece of data, after the previously released initial claims figure and employment situation report, to verify that the inclement winter weather in February had no lasting effect on economic growth during the month.
• Core retail sales, which are sales excluding auto dealers, building materials and supplier firms, and gasoline stations, jumped 0.9% in February. The jump followed a strong 0.6% gain in January.
• The core data confirm that consumers are feeling very bullish about the economy. Out of the 13 retail sectors, 11 posted positive gains, including an unexpected 3.7% increase in electronic and appliance stores.
• Auto dealer expenditures declined 2.4%. The drop in expenditures was in-line with the 4.0% plunge in February’s motor vehicle sales numbers.

Big Picture

• Retail sales fell off dramatically starting in September 2008.  That was when the financial markets fell apart and the news became apocalyptic.  Auto sales rebounded due to the Cash for Clunkers stimulus plan, but is expected to remain depressed over the next several months.  Retail sales are likely to remain weak for quite a while given the current trends in employment, and the negative wealth impact for depressed prices for homes and stocks.

Category	FEB	JAN	DEC	NOV	OCT
Retail Sales	0.3%	0.1%	-0.1%	1.8%	1.1%
Excluding Autos	0.8%	0.5%	-0.2%	1.9%	0.0%
Durable goods
Building Materials	0.5%	-0.8%	-0.4%	2.3%	-1.8%
Autos/parts	-2.0%	-1.5%	0.1%	1.2%	7.1%
Furniture	0.7%	-1.0%	0.4%	0.7%	-1.5%
Nondurable goods
General Merchandise	1.0%	1.3%	-1.1%	0.5%	0.9%
Food	1.3%	0.8%	-0.8%	1.1%	0.0%
Gasoline stations	0.3%	0.5%	0.9%	9.6%	-0.5%
Clothing	0.6%	1.5%	-1.0%	-0.1%	0.2%
e*retailing/non-store	0.0%	1.8%	2.2%	1.6%	1.5%