Briefing.com: Philadelphia Fed

Updated: 18-Mar-10 10:48 ET

March Philadelphia Fed

Updated: 18-Mar-10 10:48 ET

Highlights

The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey increased for the second consecutive month. The index rose from 17.6 to 18.9 and beat the consensus estimate of 18.0.
The details of the index look extremely weak and do not suggest continued growth.
New orders growth slipped from 22.7 to 9.3 while shipments fell from 19.7 to 13.6.
In addition, a portion of the expansion in shipments was due to firms fulfilling older orders. The unfilled orders index remained negative for the second consecutive month as orders growth has not been strong enough to replace existing orders.
On the positive side, the employment index increased from 7.4 to 8.4 and suggests an increase in hiring. While the index has remained positive for the past four months, we have not seen the increase in employment translate to higher payrolls.

Key Factors

Note: The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey does not provide a strong gauge of national manufacturing activity. In general, all Federal Reserve surveys only provide microeconomic information regarding the region in which the bank is located.
Correlations between the regions in close proximity are also low. For example, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey jumped from 15.92 in December to 24.91 in January. The boost in manufacturing in Philadelphia was much more moderate.

Big Picture

The Business Outlook does not accurately predict nationwide manufacturing and its usefulness is limited to what is going on in the Philadelphia region.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.phil.frb.org/